What is the full impact and cost of bushfires on electricity infrastructure?
In this April Hazardous Webinar, Natural Hazard Research Australia (the Centre) was joined by a panel of experts to discuss the valuable insights the Project IGNIS model provided into the quantification of bushfire risks and their implications for electricity infrastructure management in Queensland.
The collaborative efforts of the Centre, researchers and industry stakeholders were highlighted as crucial in developing effective strategies to mitigate the impacts of bushfires, ensuring the safety and resilience of communities and infrastructure.
The increasing severity and frequency of bushfires exacerbated by climate change prompted Powerlink Queensland (Powerlink) to collaborate with the Centre and researchers to understand the potential impacts of bushfires on people, the environment, and electricity infrastructure. Historically, Powerlink has dealt more with flood and cyclone risks, but the catastrophic fire weather conditions in recent years necessitated a deeper understanding of bushfire risks.
Brett Cirulis and Paul Bentley (FLARE Wildfire Research Group (University of Melbourne) and the Centre) discussed the Project IGNIS model and how it was used in the Queensland context.
Launched in 2019, Project IGNIS develop a standardised methodology for assessing the tangible and intangible impacts of major bushfires on energy networks. The project combined fire simulations, economic impact assessments and decision analysis using Bayesian networks to model the complex outcomes of catastrophic bushfires. The aim was to improve the scientific understanding of bushfire risks and guide decision-making for risk mitigation.
The methodology used to extend the Project IGNIS model to the Queensland context included:
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Landscape setting: gathering base data on vegetation, topography, land use and weather conditions to understand fire behaviour.
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Fire simulation: using models like Phoenix to simulate fire behaviour metrics, including rate of spread and flame heights.
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Asset vulnerability assessment: layering assets such as energy infrastructure and communities to predict impacts based on fire behaviour.
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Risk characterisation: using Bayesian networks to characterise risk and conduct scenario analysis, incorporating ignition likelihood and weather conditions.
The application of this model found:
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Annual area burnt: the greatest annual area burnt was observed around Townsville and Gladstone, correlating with urban settlements and higher housing density.
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Ignition locations: high-impact ignitions were identified, which could inform risk management and mitigation strategies.
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Economic impact: ignitions near population centres resulted in higher annualised costs due to the value of assets such as housing and human life.
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Risk management: the highest probability of loss to the network was found in coastal and urbanised regions, emphasising the need for targeted risk mitigation efforts.
Stephen Martin, senior strategist at Powerlink Queensland, leads fire risk management programs for the energy provider. He shared how Powerlink has used the project’s findings to enhance their fire risk management strategies. The research has provided Powerlink with a framework to understand bushfire risk at a granular level, allowing for the cost-effective management of their assets. Powerlink is now engaging with state agencies to share data from the project and collaborate on fire management initiatives, including planned burns to reduce fire risks.
In the panel discussion, the panellists highlighted ongoing work to refine Project IGNIS methodologies including:
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developing extended asset loss curves
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implementing a probabilistic landscape ignition model
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incorporating climate scenarios to assess future risks
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updating house loss and life loss equations to improve risk predictions.
The findings from this research will continue to inform decision-making processes and enhance the understanding of bushfire risks in the context of climate change.
Watch the recording below.