The release of Australia’s first National Climate Risk Assessment and National Adaptation Plan highlights the critical role of research to inform bold decision-making, adaptation, and investment to achieve the greatest reductions in risk for Australian communities.
Natural hazards are expected to become more frequent, more complex, more intense, more unpredictable and more difficult to manage due to climate change.
These natural hazards will place greater demand on disaster management capabilities already under pressure from the rising frequency and severity of disaster impacts – there is an urgent need for smart, effective solutions that enhance the safety, resilience and sustainability of Australian communities.
In the future we are likely to experience:
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widening impacts of natural hazards across societal, infrastructure, environmental and economic systems
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more people living in an almost constant state of either preparation or recovery
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greater complexity of disasters as systems become more interconnected and infrastructure is transformed, leading to cascading and unforeseen impacts
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rising insurance unaffordability in high-risk areas
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increasing impacts on physical and mental health
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greater species and habitat loss in the natural environment.
Doing more of the same is no longer sufficient. Small changes won’t get us there in time. As the natural hazard threat evolves, we must transform to Be Ahead of Ready.
Natural Hazards Research Australia (the Centre) provided input to the National Climate Risk Assessment and National Adaptation Plan, focused on the intersection of climate adaptation and natural hazard risk. The submission outlined priority areas, barriers to adaptation and tools for measuring progress, with direct relevance to emergency services.
Key priorities for climate adaptation
The Centre emphasised the need for proactive, long-term adaptation strategies rather than reactive, incremental changes following disasters. Support and advocacy were encouraged for:
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Improved land-use planning: Future development must be guided by hazard risk and climate projections. Incentives should promote building in low-risk areas.
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Resilient building standards: Existing research supports construction practices that withstand natural hazards. Mandating these standards is essential.
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Managed retreat from high-risk zones: Some areas may become uninhabitable. Voluntary buy-back schemes, though complex and costly, must be planned ahead of disasters to allow communities time to decide their futures.
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Integrated mitigation strategies: Risk cannot be eliminated entirely. Emergency services must engage in community-specific mitigation planning that considers evolving risk profiles.
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Working with natural landscapes: Incorporating First Nations knowledge and restoring ecosystems like wetlands and forests can reduce hazard impacts and offer co-benefits.
Supporting local government and communities
Local governments often lack capacity to implement adaptation measures. The Centre recommends the National Adaptation Plan including mechanisms to support local councils and community organisations, especially those working with vulnerable populations. Emergency services can play a role in building these partnerships and advocating for resource allocation.
Technology and workforce innovation
Emerging technologies—such as AI, autonomous systems and advanced sensing—offer new capabilities for emergency response. The Centre encouraged investment in these areas to reduce pressure on the emergency management workforce. Also, non-traditional organisations may complement existing services during crises.
Relevant research projects
The Centre’s user-driven research portfolio includes 52 active projects, many directly applicable to emergency services:
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Transformative scenarios: Tools to help emergency services test strategies against plausible future climate conditions.
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Infrastructure impact modelling: Understanding how interconnected systems fail during compound disasters.
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Resilient Homes Fund evaluation: Lessons from Queensland’s buy-back and retrofit programs.
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Bushfire-adaptive housing: Identifying construction and social strategies to reduce home failure rates.
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Indigenous disaster resilience: Building knowledge, leadership, and community practice in Indigenous contexts.
Measuring progress
The Centre, in partnership with NEMA and the University of New England, recently refreshed the Australian Disaster Resilience Index, which assesses community resilience across Australia. This tool can help emergency services evaluate adaptation investments and inform decision-making.
Workforce development
To ensure future capability, the Centre supports workforce development through scholarships, fellowships and placements. Emergency services are encouraged to engage with these programs to build internal expertise.
While a changed climate is certain, the increased impact of natural hazards does not have to be. We look forward to continuing to work with the federal and state and territory governments, agencies, not-for-profits, industry, business and communities to ensure Australian communities are safer, more resilient and sustainable in the face of natural hazards.