What if you were told that by 2025 the east coast of Australia will lose hundreds of homes to storm surges, or that in 2030 the country would have a bushfire season more devastating and catastrophic than the 2019-20 Black Summer bushfires?
These are examples of scientifically plausible futures of climate change that fire and emergency service agencies are striving to prepare for.
The Transformative scenarios planning process offers four possible future scenarios to help leaders in the emergency management sector stress-test their existing strategies.
Backed by research from top emergency management experts and leaders in Australia and New Zealand, these scenarios are tailor-made for the sector as part of Natural Hazards Research Australia’s (the Centre) project with Collaborative Consulting Co, Queensland Fire Department, AFAC and the Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience (AIDR). These knowledge modules provide you with tools to navigate challenges and seize opportunities in an ever-changing landscape.
This approach isn’t about predicting the future — it’s about preparing for it.
About the resources
These resources are designed to be practical, insightful and easy to fit into your schedule.
The resources are made up of engaging online modules designed to guide you through the Transformative scenarios planning process.
The modules introduce four plausible futures to help leaders and planners explore alternative pathways and identify gaps in current strategies:
- Tech Horizons – A world driven by data and technology, but at the cost of social connectedness.
- Balanced Stewardship – Communities unite to responsibly steward the planet for future generations.
- Filling the Void – Corporations step into a leadership vacuum as community goodwill grows.
- Fragmented Era – Short-term thinking dominates, leaving collective resilience behind.
The modules are fully online for maximum flexibility. You can download a comprehensive workbook and reference materials in both PDF and printable formats. The resources are designed to be practical, insightful and easy to fit into your schedule.
Refer to the Engagement and Implementation Guide and Facilitators Guide for further information.
The Modules can be used by individuals or to assist with in-person or online workshops. You can tailor each workshop and engagement activity to ensure the Transformative Scenarios Planning aligns with your organisation’s goals, culture and capacity.
Frequently asked questions
Q) Who can access the modules?
A) AFAC Member organisations and Centre Participants are automatically approved to access the modules. Email learninganddevelopment@afac.com.au or research@naturalhazards.com.au for further instruction on self-enrolment. Other organisations or individuals can apply for approval to access the modules, by emailing research@naturalhazards.com.au to request the application form.
Q) How do I enrol myself?
A) After you or your organisation have been approved, you can self-enrol by clicking the enrolment link provided. You’ll be able to create an account with your organisation’s email address, and you’ll receive a confirmation email.
Q) Do I need an account to access the Transformative Scenarios Learning modules?
A) Yes. You must use your organisation's email address to log in. Approved organisations (Centre Participants and AFAC Members) are able to create an account (e.g. username@afac.com).
If you are unsure whether your organisation is approved, please contact learninganddevelopment@afac.com.au or research@naturalhazards.com.au.
Q) What should I do if I see a “domain not allowed” error?
A) This means your organisation has not been approved. Contact the support team learninganddevelopment@afac.com.au or research@naturalhazards.com.au to request the application form.
Q) Will I receive a confirmation after enrolling?
A) Yes. You’ll get a confirmation email after creating an account.
Q) What if I forget my password?
A) Use the “Forgot Password” link on the login page to reset it.
Q) Who do I contact for help?
A) Refer to the support contact in your welcome pack or email the learning team learninganddevelopment@afac.com.au or research@naturalhazards.com.au.
Q) How is my data going to be used?
A) Content that you upload into the Transformative Scenarios Knowledge Modules is not confidential. Any sensitive or organisation-specific information used during the modules’ stress-testing exercises may be visible within the AFAC system. Participants seeking confidentiality are recommended to download the PDF versions available within Modules 4a, 4b, 4c and 4d and complete them by hand. This offline approach still allows full participation in the modules.
Q) How long will the modules take?
A) These modules take approximately six hours to complete. Modules 1, 2 and 3 should be completed in sequential order, while Modules 4a, 4b, 4c and 4d can be completed in any order.
Q) Can I provide feedback on the modules?
A) Absolutely, yes please! We welcome feedback to improve the learning experience. You can submit comments via the feedback form at the end of each module or email the support teams at learninganddevelopment@afac.com.au and research@naturalhazards.com.au.