Strengthening the emergency management sector’s capability to predict the impact of severe weather events could help better inform its preparedness and response activities, and consequently save lives, minimise injury and reduce damage to property.
The predictive capability for severe weather forecasting, and hazard forecasting more generally, is increasingly moving from a purely hazard-based service to providing information about the resultant impact. Such impact-based forecasting, however, is complex, and the information required to understand ‘what the weather will do’ depends on the user. For example, a community member looking to protect their property and an emergency manager making resourcing decisions or providing warnings to the community might want different impact-based information.
Though a relatively new field, hazard forecasting and real-time weather monitoring have improved significantly in recent years. What is not being fully realised, however, is the power of incorporating available exposure data (building locations and types, broader infrastructure information, demographic information) and available vulnerability information to add value to the hazard forecasts (temporal, spatial and intensity).
Overlaying hazard forecasts with exposure and vulnerability information contextualises the risk to the community and closes the gap to impact-based forecasting and post-event appraisal.
There is a clear opportunity for emergency service agencies and decision makers to access more detailed and tailored information to better inform preparedness and response activities, and consequently save lives, reduce damage to properties and support early relief and recovery decisions.
This project engaged with the emergency management sector and industry stakeholders (collectively referred to as sector partners) to better understand their information requirements when making decisions before and during a forecast severe weather event, to understand how existing impact prediction capability should be developed and the types of information required by different user groups. This research project provided the opportunity to explore the current national picture and inform the future development path for impact-based forecasting products and services.
The outcomes of this research will contribute to strengthening the capability to provide clear fit for purpose information, which in turn will build agency confidence in using impact information to improve community resilience to severe weather.