As the community expects more real-time information about fires, we’re learning how to effectively design fire spread predictions alongside warning products, and the best way of releasing these to the public.
As catastrophic bushfires ravaged parts of Victoria in early 2026, Victorian Country Fire Authority researcher Dr Chloe Begg was sitting in the State Control Centre when a request was received to release predictive maps to the public.
Predictive maps use available information to model fires’ expected behaviour and impacts. They are used by emergency management agencies for their internal planning and resourcing.
"Although these maps are not routinely provided to the public, with increasing community demand for information, the Predictions in Public project aims to ensure that when they are used, these maps do not create confusion, lead to misinterpretation, or cause people to ignore current emergency warnings.
"To achieve this, the project is providing empirical evidence on how predictive maps should be designed, communicated and disseminated to the public, based on how communities interpret and use these products."
As lead researcher on the project, Dr Begg and her colleague Angela Gardner were able to use the evidence to inform how the Victorian maps were developed and released.
Within two days, the State Control Centre had released nine predictive maps showing where the fires could spread over the next 24 hours.
"We gave the guidance to the people who were on shift, but we also were able to discuss in real-time which elements could be included on the maps based on the research," Dr Begg says.
Predictions in Public brings together researchers from four universities with members from every Australian jurisdiction representing the AFAC Public Information and Warnings Group and Predictive Services Group and the Bureau of Meteorology to collaborate on a national approach to creating and using predictive maps.
One of its greatest impacts has been the relationships formed along the way, Dr Begg says.
"During the Victorian bushfires, the relationships were already pre-established and the people who were making the products could then work together using the best available evidence," she says.
"I think what this project shows is how the quiet work between researchers and decision makers is really valuable."
The project was a finalist in the 2024 Resilient Australia National Research for Impact Award and a joint winner of the 2025 Research Team Award in the inaugural Natural Hazards Research Awards.
In future, the principles developed through this research will help guide national practice for how public predictive maps are created and used during major bushfires, alongside the Australian Warning System.
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