Capturing uncertainty in bushfire spread prediction | Natural Hazards Research Australia

Capturing uncertainty in bushfire spread prediction

Photo: Queensland Rural Fire Service
Research theme

Situational awareness

Project type

Core research

Project status

In progress

The project aims to develop a rate of spread model that can be operationally deployed and work in conjunction with existing NSW Rural Fire Service and other fire agency systems.

Research team
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Dr Michael Storey
Research leader
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A/Prof Owen Price
Researcher
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Michael Bedward
Researcher
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David Field
End-user
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Laurence McCoy
End-user
Project details

This project further aims to develop:

  • a Bayesian probabilistic bushfire rate of spread model for operational use - an operational model that generates predictive distributions of landscape-scale fire spread based on real bushfire observations
  • tools and approaches to generate and communicate probabilistic predictions in operational settings
  • a comprehensive rate of spread database that is easy to query and share.
Participating organisations
NSW Rural Fire Service

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