Capturing uncertainty in bushfire spread prediction | Natural Hazards Research Australia

Capturing uncertainty in bushfire spread prediction

Photo: Queensland Rural Fire Service
Research theme

Situational awareness

Project type

Core research

Project status

In progress

The project aims to develop a rate of spread model that can be operationally deployed and work in conjunction with existing NSW Rural Fire Service and other fire agency systems.

Project details

This project further aims to develop:

  • a Bayesian probabilistic bushfire rate of spread model for operational use - an operational model that generates predictive distributions of landscape-scale fire spread based on real bushfire observations
  • tools and approaches to generate and communicate probabilistic predictions in operational settings
  • a comprehensive rate of spread database that is easy to query and share.