Fire plumes in the atmospheric boundary layer

This project aims to develop a forecasting tool, driven by high resolution atmospheric modelling, that provides an objective measure of the influence of the above-surface atmospheric layer on fire behaviour. The forecasting tool will have the capability to:

1. Predict likely fire plume structure spatially and temporally across Australia given location and time.
2. Based on (1) above, assess how the profile of atmospheric stability and winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will affect the surface fire behaviour, and
3. Produce forecast (or prediction) maps and meteograms showing when and where conditions are favourable for fires to erode nocturnal inversions and entrain the conditions are favourable for a fire to erode/overcome stable conditions in the atmosphere above it (e.g. a nocturnal inversion) and entrain/recruit the conditions higher in the atmosphere in a way which effects the behaviour at the surface.

The tool should be able to be integrated into CSIRO Spark Operational and also be able to augment assessments of Fire Danger made using the AFDRS. Training in the use of the tool for key operational staff is also a requirement of this project.

Frequently asked questions

Q) Are the word limits in the submission form a guideline?

A) Each question in the submission form has a required word limit. Submissions with statements exceeding the word limit will be deemed non-compliant.

Q) What do you mean by “Total cumulative FTE contribution over the life of the project"?
A) This means the total FTE per person over the life of the project. Maximum total FTE for each person is 1.0. Cumulative is to add up all the personnel.

For example:

• If someone is contributing 1 FTE per year for three years, then their FTE is 1.000 FTE
• If someone is contributing 0.1 FTE per year for three years, then their FTE is 0.100 FTE
• If someone is contributing 0.05 FTE for two years of a three year project, then their FTE 0.033 FTE
• If someone is contributing 0.5 for two years and 0.1 for 1 years of a three year project, then their FTE is 0.367 FTE

Q) Can the Centre connect interested parties with other agencies or organisations involved in developing this project, to discuss it further and assist in developing an EOI submission?

A) While an EOI is open for submissions, the Centre procurement processes don't allow Centre staff to connect interested parties, as this can cause conflicts of interest. However, interested parties are able to contact whomever they wish, excluding those organisations listed on the EOI, to discuss the project and explore opportunities for collaboration or potential consortium submissions. If an online project briefing has been organised for an EOI, we encourage interested parties to attend the briefing to ask questions and meet other interested parties.

Q) Can interested parties contact the Centre with questions about the project design before submitting?

A)  While an EOI is open for submissions, Centre procurement processes don't allow Centre staff to share knowledge of the project design directly with interested parties. However, if you have questions, you can email research@naturalhazards.com.au and you will receive a timely response if appropriate, according to our procurement processes.

Q) Is there a preference for a project team to be from a single research organisation, or from across multiple organisations?

A) The Centre has no preference for either a single organisation or a multi-organisation project team. EOIs will be accepted from either and will be evaluated against the evaluation criteria in the same way.

Q) Can the proposed project team include researchers from government agencies or research consultancies, as well as university-based researchers?

A) EOIs will be accepted from multi-organisation project teams, and project teams can include researchers at government agencies and research consultancies. The proposed project team's capacity to undertake the project will be evaluated in the same way whether researchers are university-, consultancy- or agency-based.

Q) Would academic salaries (excluding administrative overheads) be eligible to budget?

A) Yes, academic salaries can be included within the project budget, but only when they are direct project costs and their salary is not already covered elsewhere. E.g. the salary costs of a contract researcher who is actively working on the project can be included up to the FTE component they are contributing. However, the salary costs of a tenured academic who is already paid through the university/research organisation would be included as an in-kind contribution up to the amount of their FTE contribution to the project.

Q) What do you mean by "peer review"?

A) This is a quality control process. Where requested, the final report must be reviewed by someone who is an expert in the field and independent of the project.

Q) At what rate can salary on-costs be charged?

A) Administrative overheads are limited to direct salary-related on-costs. Indirect cost recoveries are not to be included. Other administrative overheads and indirect costs can be included as in-kind contributions. Where the salary on-cost rate exceeds 28% this will need to be justified.

Q) Can equipment costs be included in the budget?

A) Ordinarily, project funds are not to be used to purchase equipment. Where funds for equipment are requested, they will need to be justified.

Q) Can international research teams apply? Alternatively, can international research teams be part of a consortium bid?

A) International research teams can be part of research projects when they are part of a consortium submission that is led by an Australian research organisation. The international team would need to be subcontracted by the lead Australian based research organisation. Please note that all budget submissions must be in Australian dollars and the lead organisation must bear the cost of funds transfer and responsibility for due diligence as required under Australian Foreign Interference regulations.

Q) Is there an option of registering my interest as an independent researcher that could assist a larger team or are you only able to consider proposals that address the entire project?

A) Yes, you can submit an EOI as an independent researcher addressing part of the project requirements. In the EOI submission form, please outline which aspects of the project you can address. Once the EOI closes, we can consider linking researchers together, although whether or not we can do that will depend on a range of factors, so we can’t guarantee that outcome. Of course, the other option is to reach out to potential collaborators now about putting in a joint EOI submission that addresses the entire project.

Q) You mentioned you are looking for a tool to forecast these types of events- would developing existing tools such as Spark be something this scheme would support?

A) It’s highly desirable that any solution that’s proposed can integrate with systems such as SPARK. It probably needs to be built outside of SPARK without necessarily requiring a simulator to be used in order to function. We are looking for a forecast product that would suggest the kinds of conditions and situations in which  this phenomenon is able to occur separate to fire simulation but able to integrate with in the future.

It is worthwhile to think of it from a fire agency perspective ie that SPARK is not the only tool available to them., Fire agencies are able toappraise how much energy is being released by their own fires through (manual) fire behaviour analysis, SPARK or even Phoenix rapid fire/AFDRS.

If the product could be laid overthe top (or considered beside) of such tools as those and show with this energy release, then predict ithe likelihood of the outcome, that is the kind of thing we are looking for with this product.

Q) Is the phenomenon of interest when the fire plumes interact with the atmospheric boundary layer and draw high-momentum fluids from high altitudes toward the surface which then accelerate the flame propagation speed? Is that the specific case of interest in this project?

A) A part of this project is to develop a more  defined boundary around exactly what the phenomenon is that we have observed.

The periods where we’ve observed this behaviour: we’ve seen the nocturnal inversion successfully form in the surrounding landscape through automatic weather stations observations of still conditions combined with the kind of fuel moisture conditions you’d expect on the surface under such an inversion.

But as shown in the examples in the presentation, that fire was not sitting in light wind speeds. It was making a run to the north under some kind of southerly wind. When we investigate that kind of scenario, we see that there is often some kind of nocturnal jet sitting above the nocturnal inversion. Yet when we unpack the situation spatially, we see that the automatic weather stations show the nocturnal inversion did form or appears to have formed at each of those weather stations that’s not located at the fire. This could show that the fire is somehow eroding those kind of conditions and recruiting some part of the jet.

Q) Is there a set project start date?

A) A project start date will be identified through discussions with the project management committee when agreeing on the research plan. We expect the research plan to have been finalised by the successful applicant by the end of February 2026.

Q) From a staffing point of view for the project proposal, is it open to PhDs or just research assistants?

A) It is preferable working with post graduates/research assistants etc on this project rather than those who are in the PhD phase. This is due to our agreement with the Commonwealth as the centre holds the IP but this can cause conflicts of interest with those working on their PhDs because they hold the moral rights to their work.

Q) The weather data you are looking at is post-fire, is there an ability on your end to access sensor data that can complement in a live situation?

A) It is quite challenging from the perspective of data availability. There most likely aren’t huge amounts of historical examples that we have that are well constrained.

After Black Summer there were several significant situations that have some level of data available about them such as the Dunns Road fires, the Badger Countegany Road fire and Green Valley, Talmalmo fire in NSW that then became a different fire (when it spread) in Victoria. In terms of the data that’s available, the imagery data is relatively sporadic but there may be some good temporal resolution data from satellites like Himawari.

There may also be some insights that can be derived from radar data archives as well where the volumetric output of the fire is a good indicator of what is happening on the ground. If it is 3 dimensional you could potentially see that the fire’s plume is pushing above some kind of nocturnal inversion and the volume being emitted from it is far greater than what you would expect for a benign overnight period.

Q) There is a part of the project outline that would be well suited for PhD students- would NHRA be open to this? Is it an option?

A) It is an option that can be considered, although the primary concern relates to intellectual property. However, similar arrangements have been made in the past with careful management of potential risks. It’s important to keep in mind that this is a competitive process, and the research team whose proposal best aligns with the selection criteria will be selected.