Identifying and defining landscape dryness thresholds for fires

Understanding how the dryness of the landscape influences the likelihood and nature of fires is critical for risk planning for fire and land managers.  

Despite a large amount of prior research and a plethora of landscape dryness products available; substantial knowledge gaps persist relating to how well existing metrics of dryness can deliver critical operational intelligence; for example, when and where fires may occur, when large fire complexes are more likely, when conditions are suitable for prescribed burning and equally when bushfire risk is negligible. 

Landscape dryness information has been identified by the Australian Fire Danger Rating System (AFDRS) as a critical input for improved risk management. Land managers have identified landscape dryness as an important input to prescribed burn scheduling and implementation. 

The need to identify appropriate indicators was identified as a priority by the AFAC predictive services group (PSG). This project has been developed by a team designated by the PSG. 

This project will review and evaluate how well current landscape dryness products deliver critical operational intelligence, identify landscape dryness thresholds for mission critical events, and develop approaches for mapping landscape dryness to deliver operational intelligence.   

The outcomes will include improved accuracy of fire simulation systems and fire danger ratings systems, added value to seasonal forecasts and better interpretation of landscape condition monitoring systems. This will lead to enhanced community safety, better preparedness and reduced fire impacts.