Fifty shades of “great”: User-informed principles for wildfire simulator development and utilisation

Fire simulators play a significant role in contemporary fire management. Their importance is likely to grow as fire risk shifts in response to climate change, land use change and other drivers. Despite their widespread use, there are major gaps in our knowledge about how fire simulators are used and what is required to ensure they support management and research. To guide the future development and use of fire simulators, we undertook a comprehensive engagement process with simulator users across Australia. This involved a staged, mixed-methods approach consisting of interviews, workshops, and a questionnaire to identify important technical and contextual factors relevant to simulator development and use. The findings were consolidated into a defined set of simulator performance criteria. Numerical estimates were obtained for several technical criteria but there was high uncertainty around these values. Contextual criteria, while viewed as important, proved difficult to benchmark and were not suited to numerical estimates. We argue that simulator development guided by a set of principles, rather than set-and-forget standards, will better accommodate diverse user requirements, including the importance of non-technical factors and the rapid pace of change in simulator technology. The qualitative and quantitative findings from participant engagement were used to derive four principles for future simulator development. These principles are 1) Drive simulator performance through improved modelling and data, 2) Improve usability of fire simulator software and hardware, 3) Adopt a comprehensive and transparent approach to validation and verification, 4) Maintain a cohesive approach to development and use through governance, capacity building and engagement.