Predictions in Public: Understanding the design, communication, and dissemination of predictive maps to the public

The Predictions in Public project aims to use collaborative processes and empirical evidence to define how future predictive products should be crafted to promote safe and effective public response during a bushfire emergency.  The research conducted in Phase 1 of the project focused on understanding current practice. Specifically, the research aimed to understand current agency practice as well as community comprehension and use of existing incident warning products. This was done to ensure that any future predictive products can complement those existing products. Research conducted in Phase 1 (Work Packages 1 – 6) provides a strong foundation from which the project can move into Phase 2 (Work Packages 7 – 14) and develop and test fire spread prediction map concepts with communities across Australia. The aim of the research conducted in Phase 2 is to promote a nationally consistent approach to the use of fire spread prediction maps in communication with members of the public during an emergency. This will be achieved by providing evidence and guidance to emergency management agencies based on the research findings. This document provides an overview of the collaborative process that the research team undertook to develop the fire spread prediction map concepts together with the project’s steering committee. It illustrates the iterative nature of this development and presents the initial map concepts. These concepts will further be developed and refined throughout Phase 2. In a first step, they will be presented to the project Steering Committee, comprised of members of the AFAC Predictive Services Group and the AFAC Warnings Group for endorsement. They will then be tested and refined through a range of empirical studies with community members across Australia. The initial fire spread prediction map concepts presented in this document, reflect decisions made by the project team (i.e., the research team and the project Steering Committee) based on discussions about the findings of Phase 1.1 At the end of Phase 1 the project team selected 6 principles from the evidence-based principles developed in Work Package 2 to focus on during the empirical studies in Phase 2 of the research. These principles were selected because they represent important agency decision points. These decision points currently lack evidence which can be used to support and inform them. To develop the initial map concepts presented in this document, the research team worked with the Steering Committee through a series of workshops. The workshops provided an opportunity for all members of the project Steering Committee to provide structured input that helped to gain further information to support the development of the map concepts. Based on the results of the workshops, draft research questions for each of the selected principles as well as a set of initial fire spread prediction map concepts have been developed. These research questions will be address and the initial map concepts will be tested through the first three empirical studies conducted as part of Phase 2: - Focus groups in three locations (Work Package 8) - A national community survey (Work Package 9) - Eye-tracking studies (Work Package 10) Based on the collective results of these three empirical studies, the research team will work with the project Steering Committee to refine the fire spread prediction map concepts and test these refinements with community members again in a wider range of scenarios in a national community survey as well as in interviews with specific community members.