Victorian bushfire case studies - Black Summer final report

Understanding the interaction of weather, fuels and landscape is essential in determining the propagation and spread of bushfires. The fires of Black Summer in Victoria burnt 1.5 million hectares and continued for three months. This project has systematically collected multiple sources of information and begun a reconstruction of the bushfire spread and behaviour for most fires for this period. With this information, it is now possible to show what occurred and when. From this, it is then possible to investigate why it happened and be able to better predict future occurrences.

This study has

• Mapped the progression of 95% of the area burnt by the Black summer fires. 44 fires had their progression mapped and 33 of these reached greater than 100 hectares
• Begun preliminary investigation into
  • the contributing factors to their development
  • the weather conditions that were present
  • documenting some of the key fire behaviour
  • scoping the influence of previous fire
• Provided an initial chronological summary containing data that is verifiable and consistent
• Provided data for many additional studies that will improve fire behaviour models, defining uncertainty in predictions, and improving prevention, preparedness, and response
• Identified further work and research opportunities that include
  • documenting the weather in eastern Victoria and improving understanding and forecasts
  • consideration of upper-level weather and fire weather interactions (eg PyroCu/Cb)
  • use of satellite for situational awareness and post fire analysis
  • improving and validating fire models
  • improving tools for fire behaviour analysts
  • providing a template for capture and storage of base level data to undertake reconstructions of future fires