Flash flooding case studies to improve predictions and the communication of uncertainty

The project is a collaboration that will explore how research can be used to better understand the weather, our capacity to forecast these events and, importantly, how to communicate uncertainties around the forecasts more clearly to emergency managers and communities.

A value-chain approach will be used to investigate the flows of information from meteorologists and modellers through emergency management agencies to communities, highlighting where and how the provision of probabilistic forecast and warning information might improve understanding of and responses to forecasts of flash flooding. 

In addition to the case study analysis, a short survey will be designed to determine public and emergency management agency staff understanding of flash flood and its certainty.