Developing an integrated predictive capability for extreme rainfall and inundation

Photo: Capt. W. M., Tatters, Flickr

Research theme

Operational response and innovation

Project type

Core research

Project status

In planning

This project aims to develop a prototype predictive capability, designed in collaboration with stakeholders and supported by social scientists, to improve forecasts of extreme rainfall and inundation and the communication of risk to emergency management.

The capability will be a multi-disciplinary collaboration between meteorological, hydrological and radar research teams, working across forecasting timescales with three main components:

improved utilisation of ensemble guidanced
development and testing of radar rainfall nowcasting tools
flood inundation mapping.

Project details

The project will build on case studies undertaken in the related Improving predictions and warnings for flash flooding project examining flash flood events. The key aims are to:

improve predictions of the timing, location and intensity of extreme rainfall, particularly rainfall that occurs over short-timescales of several hours or less
better identify locations at risk of quick-onset flooding (including flash flooding) and inundation
quantify uncertainty in extreme rain and inundation predictions on these timescales
effectively communicate risk to emergency management practitioners and the public.

Resources

Date	Type	Title
2 May 2023	Presentation	Paul Fox-Hughes - 2023 Natural Hazards Research Forum presentation
3 May 2023	Workshop material	2023 Natural Hazards Research Forum workshop presentation: Stream 3, Workshop 2